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Auto2x analysed the technology roadmaps of key players, including their product portfolio, innovation metrics such as patents and academic research, strategy and business data, and interviews with experts, to capture how players monetise opportunities for growth in Autonomous Vehicles.
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This report examines the leaders and followers in the ADAS and Autonomous Driving race, from carmakers to suppliers and emerging start-ups, to help you discover big opportunities for new revenue pools as competition intensifies.
Competition in ADAS and Autonomous Vehicles is fierce as vehicle manufacturers, automotive component suppliers and new entrants strive to:
In this report, we analyse the strategies of global carmakers and provide insights on their technology and market leadership.
Geo-fenced Level 4-Fully Automation was launched in 2019 by Waymo’s Waymo One robo-taxis (or Automated-Mobility-on-Demand, AMOD).
There are a number of OEMs and start-ups working on Autonomous Trucks, such as Aurora with plans to commercialise them by 2027, Continental, Daimler Trucks, Einride, Fernride, Gatik, Inceptio Technology, Isuzu, Kodial Robotics, Oxa, Plus, StackAV, Scania (Traton), Waabi, and Waymo.
Carmakers have unveiled their vision for Fully-Automated driving but today’s technology is still “highly-assistive”. Deployment in private cars follows a different roadmap due to the following reasons.
Mercedes-Benz and Bosch have conducted pilots of L4 Automated Valet Parking, but it’s still not legal and requires additional approvals.
In September 2024, JIDU announced the upgrade from PPA intelligent driving to ASD (Apollo Self Driving), the Level 4-AD large-scale model.
JIDU Auto, a Joint-Venture between Baidu and Geely, is the first brand to adopt Baidu Apollo ADS, which combines pure vision with an end-to-end large-scale model to support fully unmanned Level 4-Autonomous Driving tailored to Chinese roads.
The company claims this is the only system in China and one of only two globally vision-based Level 4-capable systems, together with Tesla.
However, the company believes its system is more powerful in China because of training in domestic roads and its 2-stage, end-to-end large model approach vs. Tesla FSD’s 1-stage.
The update of UNECE Regulation No.79-Steering equipment to Regulation No 157-ALKS (Automated Lane Keep Systems) allows Level-3-Conditional Automation up to 130 km/h on highways. UNECE signatories, such as Japan, Germany and the UK have ratified the regulation making the deployment of Level 3 legal.
Honda and Nissan launched Lv.3 in Japan in 2021 leveraging the update of the UNECE regulation.
Honda’s Legend with Level 3 system called “Sensing Elite” went for sale in March 2021.
Changan has Level 3 in China.
Tesla has technical capability of Level 3+ in the U.S, with FSD update coming in 2025.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz have approvals to launch Level 3 in Germany and the US.
Lidar fitment strategies for Level 3-Conditional Automation vary. BMW (iX & 7-Series) and Mercedes-Benz (L3-Drive Pilot) are equipping their new cars with Lidar for Lv.3+/4.
New launches of Level 2+ systems equipped with Level 3/4 Hardware, such as lidar and computing proliferate in China and Europe.
Chinese carmakers are following this strategy to overcome the challenges of regulatory approvals for Level 3 and update their systems to Level 3 with over-the-air-updates when they are legal.
Level 2-Driving features progress from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) to higher speed, multi-lane Cruise Assist (CA) capable of changing lanes.
Tesla, Ford, NIO are among the automakers who leverage their Over-the-Air update capabilities to offer monthly and annual subscriptions for their ADAS. This gives the opportunity to owners to test the features at a more affordable entry price point, or even after they have purchased the vehicle.
The computing power required to shift from Level 2 to Level 5 increases exponentially.
NVIDIA is a strong player in AI-vehicle brain by supplying their AI-computer to many Chinese brands, such as BYD, Hyper, Li Auto, Nuro, XPeng, Zeekr, and other carmakers such as Volvo (Geely). NVIDIA is also supplying autonomous trucking companies, such as Waabi and robo-taxi / robo-shuttle providers such as WeRide.
Other suppliers in the Autonomous Driving-Domain Controller (AD-DC) space include:
Autonomous Trucks move from pilots to deployment
Waymo’s desicion to shift away from autonomous trucking, the failure of Embark Trucks and its sale in May and TuSimple’s decision to seek a possible sale of its U.S. operations show consolidation in Autonomous Trucking market.
In March 2024, Waabi introduced their Copilot4D: A Foundation Model for Self-Driving.
The integration of generative AI into Copilot4D enables it to learn from vast amounts of sensor data without requiring extensive human supervision. This is pivotal for scaling autonomous driving technologies effectively and safely.
Copilot4D, the first foundation model that explicitly reasons in 3D space and the fourth dimension, time, learning remarkable capabilities for interacting and acting in a dynamic world, whether in simulation, like Waabi World, or in the physical world we live in. Waabi
It allows them to predict future scenarios based on real-time data from LiDAR sensors.
The model enhances decision-making processes by allowing vehicles to foresee how other road users will behave, thus making proactive rather than reactive decisions.
In June 2024, Scania opened orders for its autonomous tipper truck developed in close collaboration with customers in the mining industry.
In September 2024, Oxa acquired StreetDrone to advance industrial logistics.
Automated Driving revenue will grow from €19.3 Billion in 2020 to €35 Billion in 2025, finds Auto2x
ADAS sensors, such as radar, camera and ultrasonics, and ADAS features account for the majority of Automated Mobility’s revenues today for carmakers, suppliers, and other stakeholders.
The rising ADAS content in vehicles, such as cameras, Lidar, computing and software to support Level 3-4 Automated Driving will lead to more revenues for Automotive Suppliers.
Which Automotive suppliers are leading the race to Autonomous Vehicles?
Let’s start with the basics, the ranking by Automotive Revenue.
Auto2x examined the revenues of the 15 biggest Automotive suppliers to derive the rankings by revenue. We excluded Non-Automotive revenue which includes Industrial, Consumer Goods, Energy and Building business units and more. We also focused on those suppliers with offerings in ADAS and Autonomous Driving.
The Top-15 Suppliers recorded €360 Billion in Automotive revenue in 2023, found Auto2x
Bosch remains 1st supplier with €56 Billion, followed by ZF. Hyundai Mobis capitalized on its growth and the slowdown of Denso and Continental.
Out of the 15 Suppliers examined, 13 increased their Automotive Revenues in 2023, except for Denso and Panasonic.
Mitsubishi Electric recorded the strongest growth followed by Hyundai Mobis, APTIV and Forvia with 14% y-y.
To assess the readiness of suppliers we quantify their technological competitiveness, their strategy execution and their market positioning.
We assessed the Top-20 ADAS Tier-1s, including Aptiv, Bosch, Continental, Denso, Mobileye, Valeo, ZF, in addition to Baidu, Alibaba, Amazon and others.
New ADAS Ranking unveils that ZF and Continental are among the suppliers who broke the €2 Billion mark in ADAS revenues in 2023, but challenges remain
The growth in automotive production and the higher sensor fitment for Level 2-3 systems benefited their ADAS sales and Order Books.
Auto2x expects that the ADAS revenues from the Top-12 ADAS Suppliers will amount to €35 Billion in 2025, demonstrating the growth potential of hardware and software business models.
But major automotive suppliers face further transformation to develop capabilities in AI and software, expand into software business models and face new competition.
Traditional ADAS suppliers still maintain the lion’s share in automotive. But they face competition from US, Chinese and other Tech giants who are capitalizing on their expertise in AI, Cloud and Software transforming automotive.
We have identified a number of opportunities for Tech Companies to enter or disrupt the existing supply chain in autonomous vehicles.
Baidu and INTEL lead the overall competitiveness, followed by Amazon.
Early-stage funding in Automotive Start-ups, which includes Pre-Seed, Seed, A and B Series, amounted to $24 Billion between 2021 & Q1 2023.
Electric vehicles ($12B), Mobility business models ($6B) and autonomous vehicles ($6B) accounted for most of the funding. Funding in Web3, which supports the decentralization, privacy and transparency, rose from $29M in 2021 to $36M in 2022.
Funding rebounded in 2023 to $2.6 Billion, from $1.9B in 2022, but it’s still below 2021 ($3.6B).
Autonomous Driving Software, next-generation sensors and computing are in demand, with tele-operation emerging
The 10 most notable funding rounds in Autonomous Vehicles came from the following entities:
China leads funding with $12.9 Billion raised from 120 start-ups. European start-ups raised $3.2B, of which $1.0B went to Electric Vehicles and $0.7B for Autonomous Vehicles.
We sat down with R K Anand, Founder & Chief Product Officer, Recogni to discuss:
Paul Drysch, Founder & CEO, PreAct Technologies
PreAct’s market, near-field sensing, is already a $30 billion a year market. But existing technologies are holding back the industry from reaching self-driving functionality. We want to replace other sensors with our short range lidar that could enable better functionality and convenience at the same cost”,
Dave Opsahl, CEO Actify
Improvements in radars
Advancements in new camera / vision technology for autonomous vehicles
Lidar innovation focuses on better detection and improved packaging
Simulation for safety in autonomous vehicles: Generative AI and neural rendering could revolutionise simulation for AVs. Researchers and Developers are harnessing foundation models, such as vision language models, to generate complex scenarios aimed at stress-testing vehicles. By utilizing Generative AI for simulation of scenarios and “edge cases”, developers could improve the efficiency and performance of autonomous driving software. However, the regulatory landscape is not ready to provide clarity and requirements for robustness.
LLMs and large-scale models for Level 4-Autonomous Driving: JIDU Auto is the first brand to adopt Baidu Apollo ADS, which combines pure vision with an end-to-end large-scale model to support fully unmanned Level 4-Autonomous Driving tailored to Chinese roads
In-vehicle usage: Faraday Future’s FF 91 will feature the brand’s Generative AI Product Stack. Use cases include entertainment and social media. But, data quality, ethical guidelines and privacy policies are needed to filter out offensive or intrusive content.
Personalized Mobility: by personalizing the passenger’s journey or traffic optimization. One of the main concerns is cyber security for these applications related to Intelligent Transportation Systems.
What are some key new Software-driven features with high potential?
Software represented around 10% of overall vehicle content in 2018 for a D-segment car ($1,220) & it will grow with CAGR 11% to reach 30% ($5,200) in 2030. Major Tier-1 Suppliers are already monetizing the growth in ADAS Sensor content.
In the 2020s, the vehicle’s software value will exceed that of hardware as carmakers shift to more common platforms to achieve cost savings. What’s more, the software will be crucial for product differentiation such as new features, content, and new personalized experiences.
The shift of value to software will shape a new Software-based revenue model for Automated Mobility as existing players are forced to shift away from vertically integrated, asset-heavy business models to compete with new entrants. The economics of software are a strong fit for volume OEMs.
Software is the answer to the Digitization of the Automotive Industry but delivery is challenging.
Learn about top innovation clusters across major technological building blocks of SDVs:
Cars are becoming increasingly “Connected” with each other, the road infrastructure, our homes, and more, due to the rising penetration of embedded, tethered or integrated connectivity.
By 2030, more than 80% of cars will be Connected, with service value of more than $100 per vehicle.
But the Connected Car Services market is fragmented today, among other inefficiencies.
The integration of new services from providers of vehicle maintenance, parking, insurance, fleet management, analytics or other use cases, is costly and difficult.
What’s more, the development of apps for in-vehicle infotainment faces challenges of scalability.
How regulation, innovation and consumer demand affect adoption of autonomous vehicles?
Auto2x assesses that China will take over global leadership in Level 2-Autonomous Driving in 2025 with 1.70 million cars equipped with Traffic Jam Assist and Cruise Assist, ahead of Europe and the USA.
China benefits from the fast go-to-market strategy for advancements in Automated Driving technology, strong digital infrastructure, favourable regulation and positive consumer sentiment.